The Center for Social Data Analytics Colloquium speaker: Chris Fowler

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Title: "What we know and don't know about eligible and registered voters in the U.S.: Population, Age, and Race in Census surveys and L2 Voter Roll Data."

Abstract: A broad range of scholarship and policy depends on information about the population that is eligible to vote and the population that is registered to vote. From enforcement of the Voting Rights Act to journalism about turnout in a local election, our knowledge of voting and representation relies on a clear understanding of eligibility and registration. Despite this clear need, there are distinct areas of uncertainty and difference associated with these data that stem from variations in how the data are collected and for what purpose. In this paper we compare the important differences among a range of federal data sources on citizenship and voter registration and also consider data on registration from aggregated state voter rolls from a private vendor (L2). Our first objective is to provide a clear understanding of the comparative strengths and weaknesses of key data products for users who may not be well versed in their differences. In elaborating these differences we demonstrate the need for care in making claims about differences in eligible voter preferences for registration or the impact of policies meant to increase registration. Ultimately, we recommend analyses based on multiple data sources. We also find a distinct need to better understand local differences in how registration lists are maintained so that other sources of uncertainty in the data can be more

Bio: At its core, my research examines the way our choices about geographic boundaries shape the outcomes we are able to observe. I examine neighborhoods, school catchment areas, electoral districts, metropolitan areas, and labor markets with a focus on how these units of observation reflect the distribution of populations in space. My work focuses in particular on patterns of clustering and dispersal by race and income as these two characteristics can tell us a lot about inequality in economic, education, health, and political outcomes. Previously my work has also focused on patterns of segregation and diversity at multiple scales, on clustering of economic activity, and on competitiveness among cities and across transportation networks.