The Center for Social Data Analytics Colloquium speaker: Nadiya Kostyuk

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Title: Strategic Interdependence: Using Internet Outage Data to Study How Combatants Manage Collective Institutions During War

Abstract: This article challenges the view that war and interdependence are inherently incompatible by examining how combatants manage collective institutions during conflict. Using the Internet as a case of such an institution, we show that belligerents selectively preserve or disrupt mutual access based on battlefield conditions. Disruption is more likely during mobile offensives, which offer greater operational freedom, while static or constrained operations incentivize maintaining interdependence for coordination, intelligence, or deception. Drawing on geolocated data from Internet outages in the Russia–Ukraine war (2022–2023) and qualitative evidence from this conflict and the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflicts (2020, 2023), we find that the disruption likelihood declines as battlefield constraints increase. These findings reveal how interdependence can serve as a tactical asset rather than merely a casualty of war. This has important implications for understanding the relationship between institutions and conflict, as wartime strategies shape not only battlefield outcomes but also prospects for post-war peacebuilding.

Bio: Nadiya Kostyuk is Assistant Professor at the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University. Until 2024, she was an Assistant Professor at the School of Public Policy and the School of Cybersecurity and Privacy (courtesy) at Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests lie at the intersection of international security and technology, paying particular attention to the role of cyber power in domestic and international politics. Her methodological areas of interest include spatial statistics, mathematical/computational modeling, text analysis, and network analysis. Her research has been published (or is forthcoming) in the International Studies Quarterly, Contemporary Security Policy, Policy & Internet, Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Public Opinion Quarterly, Journal of Global Security Studies, Journal of Strategic Security, Texas National Security Review, Harvard National Security Journal, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Cyber Defense Review, and several edited volumes and general-audience publications. She is a co-founder and a co-organizer of the Digital Issues Discussion Group. She is also a founder and a co-organizer of the Cybersecurity Summer Institute. She received degrees from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor (PhD), New York University (MSc), City University of New York John Jay College (B.A.) and Kyiv National Linguistic University (B.A.).